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Germany and Europe: The indispensable European

LOOK around Europe, and one leader stands above all the rest: Angela Merkel. In France François Hollande has given up the pretence that his country leads the continent (see Charlemagne). David Cameron, triumphantly re-elected, is turning Britain into little England. Matteo Renzi is preoccupied with Italy’s comatose economy.

By contrast, in her ten years in office, Mrs Merkel has grown taller with every upheaval. In the debt crisis, she began as a ditherer but in the end held the euro zone together; over Ukraine, she corralled Europeans into imposing sanctions on Russia (its president, Vladimir Putin, thinks she is the only European leader worth talking to); and over migration she has boldly upheld European values, almost alone in her commitment to welcoming refugees.

It has become fashionable to see this as a progression from prudence and predominance to rashness and calamity. Critics assert that, with her welcoming attitude to asylum-seekers, Mrs Merkel has caused a flood that will both wreck Europe and, long before, also bring about her own political demise. Both arguments are wrong, as well as profoundly unfair. Mrs Merkel is more formidable than many assume (see article). And that is just as well: given the European Union’s many challenges, she is more than ever the indispensable European.

Why Mutti matters

Mrs Merkel’s predominance in part reflects the importance of Germany—the EU’s largest economy and its mightiest exporter, with sound public finances and historically low unemployment. She is also the longest-serving leader in the EU.

Her personal qualities count for much, too. She has defended Germany’s interests without losing sight of Europe’s; she has risked German money to save the euro, while keeping sceptical Germans onside; and she has earned the respect of her fellow leaders even after bruising fights with them. Most impressively (and alone among centre-right leaders in Europe), she has done this without pandering to anti-EU and anti-immigrant populists. For all the EU’s flaws, she does not treat it as a punchbag, but rather as a pillar of peace and prosperity.

Mrs Merkel is far from perfect. She is not given to great oratory or grand visions. She can be both a political chameleon who adopts left-wing policies to occupy the centre-ground, and a scorpion who quietly eliminates potential rivals. Her natural caution has given rise to a German neologism, merkeln (“to merkel”, or put off big decisions). Her timidity in handling the euro’s woes deepened the crisis unnecessarily; she has spurned the risk-sharing that the euro area needs to thrive.

Ironically it is boldness, not timidity, that has brought Mrs Merkel the greatest challenge of her time in office. Her staunch refusal to place an upper limit on the number of refugees that Germany can absorb has caused growing consternation at home and criticism abroad. As German municipalities protest, her political allies are denouncing her and eastern European countries are accusing her of “moral imperialism”. With Willkommenskultur fading, there is even talk of her losing power.

The doubts are overblown. Critics are wrong to assume that Mrs Merkel is about to be toppled. Grumbling aside, she remains the dominant figure of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU). A recent poll found that 82% of CDU members approve of her leadership and 81% want her to run for a fourth term as chancellor at the election due in 2017. The electoral maths favours another CDU-led government. Mrs Merkel is unlikely to go unless she chooses to.

And the naysayers are wrong to suggest she has lost her way on migration. Quite the opposite. During the crisis the Lutheran pastor’s daughter has found a forceful political and moral calling. Mrs Merkel did not cause the onrush of migrants, as her critics maintain. The migrants were coming anyway: she acted to avert a humanitarian disaster. Fences will not hold back the flow. Mrs Merkel can neither stop the wars that drive people out of their homes nor set the policies of the countries they pass through. Her critics offer no plausible alternative. Short of overturning international and European law, and watching refugees drown or die of exposure, EU countries must process the claims of asylum-seekers. The question is: will the process be orderly or chaotic?

Under Mrs Merkel, a four-part policy is taking shape: unapologetically absorb refugees at home; share the burden across Europe and beyond; strengthen controls and the processing of asylum-seekers at Europe’s external borders; and negotiate with transit countries.

This approach is principled and, in the long run, it is the only one that can work. Of course it comes with drawbacks and risks. There are likely to be less-than-principled deals, particularly with Turkey: turning a blind eye to the erosion of civil liberties and the disturbing election victory of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development (AK) party (see article), and other concessions, in the hope that he will agree to act as Europe’s gatekeeper.

And there is no denying that the mass influx of refugees is aggravating many of Europe’s other looming problems: it is fraying relations between Germany and eastern European countries just when solidarity is vital to contain Russia’s aggression; it is adding to the burdens of Greece, already crushed by years of austerity and never far from leaving the euro; it is bringing Brexit from the EU closer, too, by giving voters more reasons to leave in Mr Cameron’s promised in/out referendum; and it is stoking populism everywhere.

Stormy weather

This is Europe’s biggest crisis in a generation. If integration once seemed inexorable, the pressing question now is how to stop the EU from fraying. Mrs Merkel did not cause this grim reality, but she is the continent’s best hope for dealing with it. It is in Europe’s best interests to help the chancellor rather than leave her to confront the crisis alone. After a decade in power, politicians usually retire, lose touch or are overthrown. But, without Mrs Merkel, it is hard to see Europe mastering its destructive forces.

Source: The Economist

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