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U.S. Economy Remains Best House On Bad Block

Economic surprise indexes for the major global economies reflect the divergence in performance between the U.S. and its major trade partners. This divergence will define the global economic narrative in 2015. Relative outperformance by the U.S. economy, policy divergence among the major central banks and continued improvement in the U.S. current account should attract significant capital flows into the economy throughout this year and next, bolstering the value of the U.S. dollar, suppressing yields at the long end of the Treasury curve and boosting equity markets. U.S. economic growth and capital flows from Europe and emerging markets are why we estimate the U.S. 10-year yield will move in a range of 2.2 to 2.5 percent, compared with last year’s average of 2.53 percent. In the near term, even given strong U.s. economic performance, there is some downside risk to this estimate because of financial stress in the eurozone associated with the upcoming Greek election and deflation. In 2015 China, the eurozone and Japan, like the U.S., will see an economic boost from falling oil and gasoline prices. However, fiscal restraint in Europe, the lingering impact of the massive tax hike in Japan and the deflating of the residential and commercial investment bubbles in China will partially offset gains.

Yahoo Finance

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